The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States signals potential shifts in US foreign policy. His campaign emphasised border security, immigration reform, economic revival, opposition to woke policies and a transactional approach to foreign relations. Several of these priorities may influence India-US relations.
On the positive side, Trump views India as a crucial ally in the Indo-Pacific strategy to counterbalance China’s regional influence. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which includes Japan and Australia, was revitalised during Trump’s first term and could receive renewed emphasis. Defence cooperation and joint development of military technology could strengthen through initiatives like the US-India Defence Technology and Trade Initiative.
Trump’s energy policies, including expansion of US oil and gas production, combined with potential diplomatic breakthroughs in Ukraine, could stabilise global energy prices—a significant benefit for India’s energy import- dependent economy.
The increased visibility of Hindu-American figures in Trump’s campaign suggests potential for stronger India-US relations. Notable personalities include Usha Vance, wife of Vice-President- elect J.D. Vance; former Democratic Party Congresswoman and military officer, Lt. Col. Tulsi Gabbard (a Samoan American); and the outspoken anti-woke former entrepreneur, Vivek Ramaswamy. The trend among Indian Americans in the Republican Party of distancing from their Hindu identity and converting to Christianity appears to be changing.
On the negative side, Trump’s immigration and trade policies could potentially harm Indian interests. Restrictions on H1B visas could create uncertainty for India tech professionals working in the US and also for those who want to immigrate to the US. Bilateral trade agreements may have to be renegotiated to address Trump’s concerns on access to Indian markets and trade imbalance in favour of India.
However, there should be a reduction in foreign interference and regime change operations under Trump, which could favour India’s national security interests and also stabilise India’s neighbourhood. Thus, it seems that Trump 2.0 would provide better opportunities for India and have a net positive impact on India-US relations.
Source: Bloomberg