Introduction
A panel discussion was organized by the Awadh Institution on March 22, 2025, at the JN Tata Auditorium, Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bangalore. The keynote address was delivered by Major General Ravi Murugan, who offered valuable insights into the evolving landscape of global security cooperation, international relations, and India’s positioning in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.
Key Themes and Insights
1. The Limits of Predictive Expertise in Global Affairs
Major General Ravi Murugan opened his address by referencing a 1984 study by Philip, which involved sending 2,800 questions to 750 global experts in an attempt to forecast international outcomes. The accuracy of these predictions was only 1%, underscoring the limitations of expert forecasts. He emphasized that had such predictions been reliable, situations like the Hamas-Israel conflict and the war in Ukraine might have been foreseen and mitigated. He noted that while experts possess deep academic understanding, their practical foresight in dynamic geopolitical scenarios remains limited.
2. The United States: Economic Power and Strategic Interests
With a $28 trillion economy, the United States commands significant influence both economically and culturally. The country remains a preferred destination for global migration, especially from countries like India, driven by superior educational and economic opportunities. Historical tools of soft power, such as magazines like SPAN and SPUTNIK, were cited as examples of cultural diplomacy during the Cold War era.
Major General Murugan further highlighted how the Marshall Plan and the Warsaw Pact reflected the US and USSR’s strategies to circulate economic influence globally. India, however, chose a Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) stance during the Cold War, playing a unique role as a peace negotiator in the Korean War. Over time, particularly after the 1971 Indo-Pak war, India’s trust in the US diminished, and the country leaned more towards the USSR, which provided consistent and reliable support in contrast to the US’s transactional approach.
3. Indo-US Relations: Evolution Post-Liberalization
The dynamics of Indo-US relations underwent a significant transformation following India’s economic liberalization in the early 1990s. The second nuclear test by India and the changing geopolitical climate prompted renewed engagement between the two nations. The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, marked a turning point in the US’s approach to terrorism. Previously, the US had made distinctions between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ terrorists, but the 9/11 attacks forced a paradigm shift and paved the way for closer security cooperation with India, including the landmark Civil Nuclear Agreement.
The US, protected geographically by two oceans and lacking direct land-based threats, requires strong alliances to maintain its global standing, particularly in its strategic competition with China. India, although wary of formal alliances, was accorded the status of a Major Non-NATO Ally and is considered a vital strategic partner.
4. India, China, and Strategic Autonomy
While China continues to rise as a global superpower, its political system has not evolved in tandem with its economic growth. India, sharing a long and sensitive land border with China, cannot afford to openly declare China an adversary. Unlike the US, India would be forced to face a potential conflict with China alone, as land wars are of limited interest to other global powers.
India has been cautious about forming rigid alliances and prefers strategic partnerships. This approach allows India to maintain its strategic autonomy while building relationships that serve its long-term interests.
5. Defence, Technology, and Economic Sovereignty
The US remains a key player in global defence, with European Union countries operating under the security umbrella provided by the US. Former President Donald Trump’s tenure saw increased pressure on allied nations to raise their defence spending to the recommended 2% of GDP. The US also serves as a major market and supplier of military equipment, often offering more cost-effective solutions.
Despite defence cooperation, technology transfer continues to be a contentious issue. The US is cautious in sharing critical technologies due to competitive concerns, prompting India to focus on home-grown innovation and initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India). Major General Murugan emphasized that technological independence is a cornerstone of national security.
6. Trade and Global Economic Shifts
Trade relations between India and the US remain shaped by differing perspectives. While India advocates for special treatment as a developing country, the US stresses reciprocity and fairness, especially after experiencing economic challenges stemming from preferential treatment granted to China in the past.
The global importance of oil has significantly influenced diplomatic and strategic alignments. With changing dynamics in the Gulf region, policies continue to evolve. Taxation, trade balances, and competitiveness are expected to define future economic relationships, with flexibility and adaptability becoming critical.
Major General Ravi Murugan’s address offered a nuanced overview of India’s geopolitical standing and its evolving relationships, particularly with the United States. His emphasis on strategic autonomy, technological self-reliance, and careful diplomacy in dealing with major powers like China and the US resonated with the audience. The session provided valuable perspectives on how India can navigate its security and economic challenges in a multipolar world.
